Weed eradication – a history of adaptive management combined with innovative game-changers are poised to improve success rates

Abstract

A raft of innovative technology and approaches are currently emerging that are expected to dramatically improve not only detection timeliness but also delimitation confidence. This paper outlines the evolution of strategic decision-making behind several major weed eradication programs in Queensland over the past 25 years and predicts that several key areas of science will yield significant improvements in success-rate. Techniques such as eDNA detection and DNA microsatellite analysis can now be used to reverse-engineer the dispersal architecture of invasive populations, revealing powerful insights into population development and, ultimately, radically improve delimitation confidence. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), combined with machine learning to automate image processing, have the potential to significantly improve detection of isolated targets over large areas. Moreover, targeted, pre-emptive surveillance using coordinated and trained volunteer-networks, in combination with sentinel sites and improved pathways analysis, are expected to detect targets much earlier, making populations more vulnerable to eradication. Data analysis will continue to evolve, guiding smarter decisions. A greater emphasis on pest risk assessment, information on basic ecology, and intelligence generally, will allow us to pre-emptively “understand the enemy”, much like the military’s ISR approach (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) placing us on the “front foot” rather than responding reactively. In summary, there is exciting scope to improve the probability of successful early detection and eradication of high-risk biosecurity targets.