NEXUS project: exploring profitable, sustainable livestock businesses in an increasingly variable climate

Abstract

Changing climates, and increased pressure from government and consumers to reduce the impacts of red meat on the environment threaten the viability of red meat production in Australia. We used bioeconomic modelling of a constructed case study farm in the Northern Downs region of Queensland to understand the impacts of a future climate (centred on 2050) on the productivity, profitability, and sustainability of beef production, and to evaluate a range of interventions. We also used semi-structured interviews to understand human adaptive and transformation capacity. Without changes to management, productivity, profitability, and sustainability of beef production in the Northern Downs region is predicted to decrease by 2050. Of the activities modelled, improving the feedbase through oversowing of herbaceous legumes, and transitioning from a breeder herd to steer turnover operation resulted in the greatest improvements in productivity and profitability. Large decreases in methane emissions, on a per ha and per kg liveweight sold basis, were possible through changing to a steer turnover operation and through the application of novel technologies that could provide reductions in the production of enteric methane. The results provide an indication of potential adaptation pathways for the industry and highlight gaps for future research and development.