SOI phases and climatic risk to peanut production: A case study for Northern Australia

Abstract

Phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in August/ September are used in conjunction with a dynamic peanut simulation model to quantify climatic risk to peanut production in northern Australia. Specifically, we demonstrate how a simulation model can assist to forward estimate production risk based on historic climate records and known atmospheric conditions prior to planting a crop. The SOI phase analysis provides skill in assessing future rainfall probability distributions during the growing season and thus allows an estimate of likely crop performance. Such knowledge can provide valuable information for producers and processors. For instance, the analysis shows that for negative SOI patterns prior to sowing the expected median yield potential for dryland peanut production in northern Australia is 1ċ25 t ha−1 or 27 per cent below the long- term median. Conversely, a positive SOI pattern shows a median potential yield of 2ċ11 t ha−1, an increase of 23 per cent over the long-term median. Other production variables, such as date and frequency of planting opportunities, also differ significantly depending on SOI patterns.